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Lineages and Results of Y-chromosome DNA Testing for Surname CARMACK

 and Variations, such as: CORMACK, CARMICK, CORMICK, MacCCARMACK, MacCORMACK, McCARMACK, McCORMACK, etc.

  NOTE: The markers to the right, in red, have shown a faster mutation rate then the average, therefore, if your mutations are in these markers your match may be closer than if the mutations were in the black markers.   H 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 G Y Y 4 6 5 5 C C 4 4
  A 9 9 9 9 8 8 2 8 3 8 9 8 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 A C C 5 0 7 7 D D 4 3
  P 3 0 4 1 5 5 6 8 9 9 2 9 8 9 9 5 4 7 7 8 9 4 4 4 4 0 T A A 6 7 6 0 Y Y 2 8
  L     or   a b       |   |   a b             a b c d   A                    
  O     1             1   2                               I I         a b    
  G     9                                               H I I                
  R                                                     4 a b                
  O                                                                          
  U                                                                          
  P                                                                          
ID Earliest Documented Ancestor     1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
Carmack Family Group 1 (CFG1) -Common Ancestor: Cornelius Carmack, Born Abt 1681, MD
12705 Cornelius Carmack 1681 MD R1b1 13 23 15 11 11 14 12 12 11 14 13 30 16 9 9 11 11 25 15 19 33 15 15 15 17                        
12695 Jesse Ann Carmack 1797 VA R1b1 13 23 15 11 11 14 12 12 11 14 13 30 16 9 9 11 11 25 15 19 33 15 15 17 17                        
13372 Cornelius Carmack 1681 MD R1b1 13 23 15 11 11 14 12 12 11 14 13 30 16 9 9 11 11 25 15 19 33 15 15 17 17                        
14147 Jesse Ann Carmack 1797 VA R1b1 13 23 15 11 11 14 12 12 11 14 13 30 16 9 9 11 11 25 15 19 33 15 15 17 17                        
24075 Jesse Ann Carmack 1797 VA R1b1 13 23 15 11 11 14 12 12 11 14 13 30 16 9 9 11 11 25 15 19 33 15 15 17 17                        
6725 Cornelius Carmack 1681 MD R1b1 13 23 15 11 11 14 12 12 11 14 13 30 16 9 9 11 11 25 15 19 33 15 15 17 17                        
12690 Jesse Ann Carmack 1797 VA R1b1 13 23 15 11 11 14 12 12 11 14 13 30 16 9 9 11 11 25 15 19 33 15 15 17 17 10 11 19 23 16 15 18 18 35 37 11 12
Carmack Family Group 2 (CFG2) -Common Ancestor: Levi Carmack, Born 4 Mar 1824, VA
43778 Levi Carmack  1824 VA R1b1 13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 30 15 15 16 17                        
43777 Levi Carmack  1824 VA R1b1 13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 30 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 30 15 15 16 17                        
Carmack Family Group 3 (CFG3) -Common Ancestor: Unknown, NC
14738 Furney Carmack 1810 NC R1b1 13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 14 13 30 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 18 30 15 15 16 17 11 11 19 23 16 14 18 18 39 40 11 12
12691 Samuel B. Carmack 1808 NC R1b1 13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 14 13 30 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 18 30 15 15 16 17 11 11 19 23 16 15 18 18 41 41 11 12
61583 John Carmack 1819 NC R1b1 13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 14 13 30 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 18 30 15 15 16 17 11 11 19 23 16 15 18 18 41 41 11 12
12698 Fredrick Carmack 1814 NC R1b1 13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 14 13 30 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 18 31 15 15 16 17 11 11 19 23 16 15 18 18 41 41 11 12
Carmack Family Group 4 (CFG4) -Common Ancestor: Unknown, NJ
45925 Arthur Carmack 1720 NJ R1b1 13 23 14 11 11 15 12 12 12 13 13 29 19 9 10 11 11 25 15 19 29 15 15 17 17                        
Carmack Family Group 5 (CFG5) -Common Ancestor: Unknown, TN
N17983 Edward McCormack 1880 TN R1b1 13 26 14 11 11 13 12 12 11 13 14 29 17 9 10 11 11 25 15 18 30 15 16 16 17 11 11 19 23 17 16 19 17 37 38 12 12
 

Carmack Family Groups: I have organized the results into groups that have close matches.  Thus far we have 5 Carmack Family Groups. These test participants are considered related if they have at least 10 of 12 markers, or 23 of 25 markers, or 33 of 37 markers that match exactly. I have highlighted those markers that do not match within each group.

FTDNA states that from their observation of 1000's of samples that some markers change, or mutate, at a faster rate than others. While that actual 'faster rate' has not yet been definitively calculated, not all markers should be treated the same for evaluation purposes.

The markers in the red columns have shown a faster mutation rate then the average, and therefore these markers are very helpful at splitting lineages into sub sets, or branches, within family trees.

Explained another way, if you match exactly on all of the markers except for one or a few of the markers that have been determined mutate more quickly, then despite the mutation this mismatch only slightly decreases the probability of two people in your surname group of not sharing a recent common ancestor.

Using DNA Results to Find Ancestors

Most of us are researching our Carmack ancestors -- trying to document at least one more generation back in the chain. The difficulty is getting past brick walls created by lost, burned or never-existing records of births, deaths, marriages etc. Hopefully our DNA project will help you get past your brick wall. How can that happen?

Genetic genealogy can substantiate the known, paper genealogy and help prove that two or more individuals, with the same surname, are connected by a common ancestor.

Estimating when that common ancestor actually lived is left down to mathematics and statistics. Studies show that although a mutation at any particular marker is a random event, it is expected to change roughly once every 500 generations (based upon 25 years per generation). It is like a ticking clock, although this DNA clock doesn't always chime right on time.

The simple step is to find a match between your Carmack DNA and that of another Carmack family who has a documented family tree that precedes your own documented tree. Then you can focus on the missing link between your family and the family with matching DNA. The DNA results will not tell you who links your tree and that of the family with matching DNA, but it will tell you that your families have a common Carmack male ancestor -- what geneticists call the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA).

What constitutes a match?

  • For 12 markers: 8 or less is a non-relative; 9-10 means only a small chance of a relationship; 11-12 means a possible relationship.
  • For 25 markers: 20 or less is a non-relative; 21-22 means only a small chance of a relationship; 23-25 means a high probability of a relationship.
  • For 37 markers: 30 or less is a non-relative; 31-37, please see this chart at FTDNA.

Here is a Table showing the times back to the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA). Those numbers are based in the latest results of the mutation rate study conducted by the University of Arizona. For example, with 37/37 (all 37 markers match), there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was no longer than 2 generations, and a 90% probability that the MRCA was within the last 5 generations. Compare these with 25 and 12 -- with 25 markers, there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was within the last 3 generations, while with 12 markers, there is a 50% probability that the MRCA was within the last 7 generations. 

Probability for Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA)

Number of matching markers 50% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
 
90% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
 
95% probability
that the MRCA was no longer than this number of generations
 
11 of 12 17 39 47
12 of 12 7 23 29
23 of 25 11 23 27
24 of 25 7 16 20
25 of 25 3 10 13
35 of 37 6 12 14
36 of 37 4 8 10
37 of 37 2 5 7

The trick is to reduce the uncertainty in the determination of that MRCA until you have identified the individual who is the father of both of your family lines. The ideal process starts with a verification of your own family line of DNA by having distant male Carmack cousins take either the 12, 25, or 37marker DNA test. By proving that they both carry the exact same Y chromosome DNA, you have a solid benchmark which you can compare with the results from other Carmack families who do the same.

As you find Carmack families with matching DNA, you must map them to your own family tree and history. The degree to which your DNA matches determines how far back you probably shared a common ancestor.

As more Carmack males participate in the DNA testing, the number of potential matches for your DNA increases. The more matches you find, the closer you can pin down the MRCAs for you and the matches that you find. Creating an ancestry map like the one in the above figure will help you know when you have identified each MRCA.

Additional Comparison Data

This data was calculated from http://www.mymcgee.com/tools/yutility.html

The following table includes all participants and shows the genetic distance to each other.  It's clear from this that the group in rows 2-8 (the shaded green) are related to each other.  Also, rows 10-12 are related to each other and rows 9, 13 & 14 are individual Groups.  These Groups are not related to each other.

Genetic Distance
ID m
o
d
a
l
 
1
2
7
0
5

C
o
r
n
e
l
i
u
s

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
5

J
e
s
s
e

A
n
n

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
3
3
7
2

C
o
r
n
e
l
i
u
s

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
4
1
4
7

J
e
s
s
e

A
n
n

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
2
4
0
7
5

J
e
s
s
e

A
n
n

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
6
7
2
5

C
o
r
n
e
l
i
u
s

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
0

J
e
s
s
e

A
n
n

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
4
3
7
7
7
/
8

L
e
v
i

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
1

S
a
m
u
e
l

B
.

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
4
7
3
8

F
u
r
n
e
y

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
8

F
r
e
d
r
i
c
k

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
4
5
9
2
5

A
r
t
h
u
r

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
N
1
7
9
8
3

E
d
w
a
r
d

M
c
C
o
r
m
a
c
k
 
modal 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 8 11 8 7 11
12705 Cornelius Carmack 1 25 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 8 8 8 8 11
12695 Jesse Ann Carmack 0 1 25 0 0 0 0 0 9 8 8 8 7 11
13372 Cornelius Carmack 0 1 0 25 0 0 0 0 9 8 8 8 7 11
14147 Jesse Ann Carmack 0 1 0 0 25 0 0 0 9 8 8 8 7 11
24075 Jesse Ann Carmack 0 1 0 0 0 25 0 0 9 8 8 8 7 11
6725 Cornelius Carmack 0 1 0 0 0 0 25 0 9 8 8 8 7 11
12690 Jesse Ann Carmack 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 37 9 11 12 8 7 11
43777/8 Levi Carmack 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 25 3 3 4 6 7
12691 Samuel B. Carmack 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11 3 37 3 1 7 6
14738 Furney Carmack 11 8 8 8 8 8 8 12 3 3 37 1 7 6
12698 Fredrick Carmack 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 4 1 1 25 7 7
45925 Arthur Carmack 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 25 9
N17983 Edward McCormack 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 7 6 6 7 9 25
Related Probably Related Possibly Related
FTDNA's Interpreting Genetic Distance for 12 Markers
FTDNA's Interpreting Genetic Distance for 25 Markers
FTDNA's Interpreting Genetic Distance for 37 Markers
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested

For the following comparison I only used Group 2 and Group 3 data as they are closely matched, but not close enough to claim related.  In this table is shows that ID 43777/8 is a Genetic Distance of 3 from ID 12691.  FTDNA states that these two are Probably Not Related based on 25 markers.  Of interest is that IDs 12691 and 14738 have upgraded to 37 markers.  ID 12691 is a Genetic Distance of 3 from 14738 but now FTDNA states these two are Related.  This difference is due to the number of markers 34 out of 37 rather than 22 out of 25.

Genetic Distance
ID m
o
d
a
l
 
4
3
7
7
7
/
8

L
e
v
i

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
1

S
a
m
u
e
l

B
.

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
4
7
3
8

F
u
r
n
e
y

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
8

F
r
e
d
r
i
c
k

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
modal 37 3 0 3 1
43777/8 Levi Carmack 3 25 3 3 4
12691 Samuel B. Carmack 0 3 37 3 1
14738 Furney Carmack 3 3 3 37 1
12698 Fredrick Carmack 1 4 1 1 25
Related Probably Related Possibly Related
FTDNA's Interpreting Genetic Distance for 12 Markers
FTDNA's Interpreting Genetic Distance for 25 Markers
FTDNA's Interpreting Genetic Distance for 37 Markers
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested

 

Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (Years)
ID m
o
d
a
l
 
4
3
7
7
7
/
8

L
e
v
i

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
1

S
a
m
u
e
l

B
.

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
4
7
3
8

F
u
r
n
e
y

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
8

F
r
e
d
r
i
c
k

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
modal 37 700 75 350 300
43777/8 Levi Carmack 700 25 700 700 900
12691 Samuel B. Carmack 75 700 37 350 300
14738 Furney Carmack 350 700 350 37 300
12698 Fredrick Carmack 300 900 300 300 25
0-225 Years 250-475 Years 500-725 Years 750-975 Years
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0028 to 0.0038
     rates derived by Doug McDonald from the Sorenson database
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
- Probability is 50% that the TMRCA is no longer than indicated
- Average generaton: 25 years

 

Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (Years)
ID m
o
d
a
l
 
4
3
7
7
7
/
8

L
e
v
i

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
1

S
a
m
u
e
l

B
.

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
4
7
3
8

F
u
r
n
e
y

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
1
2
6
9
8

F
r
e
d
r
i
c
k

C
a
r
m
a
c
k
 
modal 37 1450 275 725 875
43777/8 Levi Carmack 1450 25 1450 1450 1775
12691 Samuel B. Carmack 275 1450 37 725 875
14738 Furney Carmack 725 1450 725 37 875
12698 Fredrick Carmack 875 1775 875 875 25
0-225 Years 250-475 Years 500-725 Years 750-975 Years
- Infinite allele mutation model is used
- Average mutation rate varies: 0.0028 to 0.0038
     rates derived by Doug McDonald from the Sorenson database
- Values on the diagonal indicate number of markers tested
- Probability is 95% that the TMRCA is no longer than indicated
- Average generaton: 25 years

 

 

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